Wars are won by experienced staff, brave and motivated forces, and factories that don’t screw up. Cote D'Ivoire There is of course evidence of advanced Chinese systems being prepared and claims that the U.S. is losing its relative share of power. Gambia In the U.S. military, I have noted people rolling their eyes when they hear about the superweapons being produced. Similarly, there is no reason to believe that Trump desires military conflict with China. security, financial stability) or risk the collapse of the system which enabled its rise. The problem is a possible clash between American exceptionalism and the “China Dream.” The former is defined by freedom, individualism, democracy and the idea that the U.S. has a (missionary) mission to transform the world. As tensions between the US and China rose in 2018, so did discussion of Thucydides’s trap. St. Pierre and Miquelon Dr. Friedman is also a New York Times bestselling author. Lao People's Democratic Republic He is certainly correct if by rising he means it has surged since Mao Zedong died. China's Peaceful Rise and the Thucydides Trap China first proposed a “peaceful rise” as early as by the end of 2003. Malaysia But for China, if international trade collapsed, internal declines in consumption would come on top of the loss of foreign markets. International Callers: 1-512-687-3444. Thucydides was a fifth century BC Greek philosopher. Is China rising or risen? Tanzania There’s also the problems of reliable information and accurate interpretation. Vanuatu Peru Nigeria South Africa In 2014 the IMF estimated that the size of China’s economy in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms has exceeded the United States at $16.7 trillion vs. $16.4 trillion respectively. The reason is Thucydides’s Trap, a deadly pattern of structural stress that results when a rising power challenges a ruling one. But what is also alarming is that between China and Australia. Bahamas Ghana The Truth About the U.S.-China Thucydides Trap George Friedman, Geopolitical Futures July 17, 2020 We remember Thucydides as a historian thanks to … On the contrary, both countries’ leaderships realize what is at stake, and neither ultimately wants to derail the mutually beneficial economic relationship that forms the foundation of their economies. Japan 2-3 pages single spaced. But the policy couldn't stop China from getting established as a dominant power who can pose threat on the unipolar world order controlled by the United States of America. Just go to Google News and type in “Thucydides Trap” and you’ll find that it is mentioned at least weekly in one article on US-China relations or another. According to Allison, the Thucydides Trap’s formation depends on two factors: “the rising power [China]’s growing entitlement, sense of its own importance, and demand for greater say and sway, on the one hand, and the fear, insecurity, and determination to defend the status quo this engenders in the established power [United States] on the other.” People fret about a "Thucydides Trap" of inevitable conflict between China and the United States. While we've recognized these pitfalls for a long time, we now have an official term for at least one of them. Please visit my website www.davidyuda.com. 2-3 pages single spaced. Mexico Syria Nearly 20 percent of China’s gross domestic product is generated from exports, 5 percent of which are bought by its largest customer, the United States. The U.S.-China 'Thucydides Trap': A View from Beijing by Mo Shengkai Chen Yue “It was the rise of Athens, and the fear that this inspired in Sparta, that made war inevitable.” —Thucydides Lithuania Pitcairn Eritrea Andorra And like all great philosophers, he has many things to teach us, even if his teaching is inappropriately applied. Lebanon Virgin Islands (British) Bulgaria Tokelau In the wake of China returning a seized U.S. drone, I can tell you that virtually everyone in U.S.-Chinese relations has a similar dread about Trump's tweet-based “policy” toward China. Guyana Thucydides, being a historian, used ‘inevitable’ in hindsight. U.S., China and Thucydides. Denmark I have held senior management and investment positions, advisory and board roles and am now an academic and researcher. South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands Barbados Think China and the U.S. today. China's Peaceful Rise and the Thucydides Trap China first proposed a “peaceful rise” as early as by the end of 2003. Benin A perilous trap but uncertain outcome Today, an irresistible rising China is on course to collide with an immovable America. Sierra Leone China is not pressing the United States in any dimension, and for this reason, American rhetoric is not matched by the frenzied production the U.S. puts in motion when it is concerned. So if that sentence from Thucydides is correct, then China is clearly a rising power that will want her “place in the sun” — which will lead ineluctably to a collision between rising China (Athens) instigated by the presumably setting U.S. (Sparta), which will see military preemption as the only recourse to avert a loss of power and a Chinese-dominated world. For almost 20 years before resigning in May 2015, Dr. Friedman was CEO and then chairman of Stratfor, a company he founded in 1996. Micronesia, Federated States of El Salvador Are the U.S. and China headed there? Vatican City State (Holy See) Allison’s Thucydides trap has set the political scaffolding of the tense global geopolitical competition between China and the US. Pakistan Mayotte Taiwan My book "Aircraft Valuation: Airplane Investments as an Asset Class" was recently released by Palgrave Macmillan. The illogic of offensive realism New Zealand The defining question about global order for this generation is whether China and the United States can escape Thucydides’s Trap. Northern Mariana Islands Iceland Serbia The Thucydides Trap, also referred to as Thucydides's Trap, is a term coined by American political scientist Graham T. Allison to describe an apparent tendency towards war when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as the international hegemon. Latvia The Thucydides Trap leads us to believe a U.S.-China war is inevitable. As China emerged as a major economic and political power, however, there has been increasing concern regarding the role it plays in international trade and affairs over the last decade. All rights reserved. Djibouti In the Thucydides trap metaphor, China is Athens and America is Sparta. Turks and Caicos Islands Are the U.S. and China headed there? But war isn’t inevitable, until it is. Liberia He believed it was the threat, the Spartans felt with the rise of Athens that lead to the two city-states clashing swords. There is the need here for honest brokers, and countries like Singapore can mediate and mitigate tensions. The most important thing to understand about China is that its domestic market cannot financially absorb the product of China’s industrial plant. Congo Iraq This problem is compounded by the current lack of a common enemy—it was the Soviet Union in the 1970s and both were united against terrorism in the 2000s—and exacerbated by slowing global growth. The Thucydides Trap tells exactly of this danger: A rising power like China, eager to assert itself at the expense of a ruling power like America, precipitates a conflict between the two. Costa Rica Nauru Graham Allison’s “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?” (2017) may have a destiny as century’s reference. Cyprus Turkey Monaco Tuvalu Montserrat His books have been translated into more than 20 languages. Croatia Virgin Islands (U.S.) George Friedman is an internationally recognized geopolitical forecaster and strategist on international affairs and the founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures. Athens’ rise was a necessary but insufficient condition for war; human emotion played an essential part, too. In truth, what Thucydides said about democracies and oppressive regimes was far more sophisticated and complex than a simplistic slogan invoked by defeatists. Trump’s anti-China rhetoric and actions, including crossing out the prefix “Corona” and replacing it with “China,” are part of a continuation of US empire building that began long before Trump seized power in the Electoral College coup of 2016. And that possibility is there. If there is a “Thucydides Trap,” it is the trap of hubris, which great powers fall into over and over again. Arguably, it was fear, pride and honor that sparked and fanned the flames of war. Saint Kitts and Nevis It has no ground force it could lend to China, nor does it have a naval force that would be decisive in its Pacific operations. St. Helena His most popular book, The Next 100 Years, is kept alive by the prescience of its predictions. Oman Anything that could reduce China’s economy for the long term by about 20 percent is a desperate vulnerability. And to the China watcher, the process of power consolidation by the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, reaching its terminus—with his ideology being written into the party’s constitution in 2017 and term limits being scrapped in 2018—must have represented a sea change in policy away from Deng Xiaoping’s “hide your strength, bide your time,” to a more confident and confrontational one. Romania The "Thucydides Trap" appears to have a searing resonance in the relations between the United States and China with the former being the incumbent power and the latter a rising one. China should avoid the Thucydides trap with India Modi is facing a lot of opposition for not being transparent about the actual situation at the border K S Venkatachalam June 30, 2020 Burundi The fear might be wholly justified, or it might not be justified at all (or somewhere in between). This misuse of the concept is quite sad, because Thucydides actually does have a very useful story to tell policy-makers in the United States. Mauritius Cook Islands The United States does not need to control these lanes; it just needs to deny them to China. It suggests that a war is likely to happen when an emerging power, say, a ranked number 2 power (#2), threatens to displace an existing hegemon (#1). Belgium He also believed … Doing so might hurt the U.S. but not existentially. Similarly, there is no reason to believe that Trump desires military conflict with China. Russia Mini Teaser: How can Washington and Beijing avoid typical patterns of distrust and fear? So if that sentence from Thucydides is correct, then China is clearly a rising power that will want her “place in the sun” — which will lead ineluctably to a collision between rising China (Athens) instigated by the presumably setting U.S. (Sparta), which will see military preemption as the only recourse to avert a loss of power and a Chinese-dominated world. Ukraine United Arab Emirates Trinidad and Tobago It has a significant military, but that military’s hands are tied until China eliminates its existential vulnerability: dependence on exports. It’s on this point that I disagree with Jacek. Montenegro Cameroon Curacao Jacek Bartosiak, who wrote of the Thucydides trap for us last week, is never simplistic, but I think he is wrong in some respects. Bonaire, Saint Eustatius and Saba The United States is achieving a tactical advantage because it is imposing a confrontation at a moment when China still finds itself not strong enough for open struggle. Hypothetically, China could forge an alliance with Russia, a nearby power with which it shares some common competitors. Italy Australia He analysed the reasons around it and came to the conclusion that if a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power it could lead to war. To keep these in check, the U.S. and China should not aim for zero disagreement, but agree on how to disagree. Timor-Leste COVID-19 has hurt and will continue to hurt many countries. Sao Tome and Principe Namibia Luxembourg Gabon Canada The latter is more ambiguous, but centers around collective effort, socialism, prosperity and national glory. Faroe Islands Aaland Islands If the US and China come to blows, it is likely that they will have failed to learn Thucydides’ timeless teachings about the arrogance of power. As tensions between the US and China rose in 2018, so did discussion of Thucydides’s trap. In recent years a slow-brewing conflict has broken out between the US and China over technology, in a rivalry that has all the hallmarks of a “Thucydides Trap”. Haiti The question for any military is not what equipment it has but how long it takes to jury-rig the breakdown. Cocos (Keeling) Islands French Southern Territories Turks & Caicos Islands Dominica It was coined and is primarily used to describe a potential conflict between the United States and the People's Republic of China. Brazil Hungary Vietnam South Sudan Hong Kong A perilous trap but uncertain outcome Today, an irresistible rising China is on course to collide with an immovable America. I am a senior investment professional at Neo-Criterion Capital, a fund management house focused on pan-China public equities. Blacklist, Freezer Rush Helps Drive Copper Towards A Record $10,000 A Ton, China Urges U.S. To Stop Bullying With Blacklist, Vows To Take Action, China Has A $15 Trillion Problem With Economic Reality, Trump Signs Bill That Could Delist Chinese Companies From U.S. Stock Exchanges, Singapore To Open For Business Travel In January Under ‘Bubble’ Arrangement, Iron Ore Rockets To $160 A Ton And China Cries Foul, Hyundai Buys Boston Dynamics From SoftBank In $1.1 Billion Deal. Sint Maarten Slovenia Svalbard and Jan Mayen Islands Myanmar Qatar Copyright © 2020 Geopolitical Futures. Israel Uruguay Saudi Arabia Indonesia Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. Bahrain Albania Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Saint Martin Under these circumstances, the idea of initiating a war is farfetched. Yes, China has grown, but its growth has made it a hostage to its foreign customers. To access the ocean, China must control the sea lanes through at least one (and preferably more) outlet. Friedman received his bachelor’s degree from the City College of the City University of New York and holds a doctorate in government from Cornell University. by Author(s): Robert B. Zoellick. The “Thucydides trap” refers to the theory that when a rising power threatens a ruling power, the result is often war. But he is implying more: that China is rising to the point that it can even challenge the United States. The problem is that Russia’s focus must be on its west and on the Caucasus. China should avoid the Thucydides trap with India Modi is facing a lot of opposition for not being transparent about the actual situation at the border K S Venkatachalam June 30, 2020 Puerto Rico Yemen Greece Falkland Islands Zambia Armenia Echoes of the trap, while resplendent in most domains and areas of the relationship between the two also came when the United States sent two warships through the Taiwan Strait in the first such operation this year. Singapore Belize The basic concept is that, when a rising power is observed by an existing great power, the existing great power becomes fearful. All Rights Reserved, This is a BETA experience. Does the rise of China mean an end to US supremacy and a risk of major war? The error is the idea that China is a rising power. Kazakhstan But is a 2,400-year-old school of thought really what the U.S. should base its foreign policy on? Lesotho Tunisia As it has been already noted, China will fall into the Thucydides trap due to the awareness that the U.S. has made up its mind to firmly resist China’s rise out of the fear or uncertainty about the future. Slovakia To the astute observer, perhaps the first sign of trouble was when the Council on Foreign Relations noted in 2015 that China “represents ... the most significant competitor to the U.S. for decades to come." Togo Norfolk Island American Samoa French Polynesia Kiribati The argument that the U.S. may overreact is based on this error. Thucydides trap is the dangerous dynamic that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power. Western Sahara Samoa (Independent) Antigua And Barbuda Austria China has appeared anxious to avoid the problem, and the government-run Xinhua news agency has published numerous articles on averting the Thucydides Trap in recent years. The United States has no interest in a war in the Western Pacific. Greenland Botswana China lacks that. Central African Republic Egypt China, the United States and the Thucydides Trap By J Brooks Spector • 26 May 2020 Illustrative image | sources: President of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping. Venezuela Angola The failure to recruit allies is an indicator of the regional appreciation of Chinese power and trustworthiness. But the United States has even more devastating options. Republic of Kosovo Thousands of years after the war was fought between Sparta and Athens, observers argued that it showed that an authoritarian government would defeat a democracy. The U.S. is choosing to press China hard, but the risk of doing so is low. Bouvet Island As China emerged as a major economic and political power, however, there has been increasing concern regarding the role it plays in international trade and affairs over the last decade. Madagascar EY & Citi On The Importance Of Resilience And Innovation, Impact 50: Investors Seeking Profit — And Pushing For Change, Michigan Economic Development Corporation With Forbes Insights, China Launches Anti-Monopoly Investigation Into Alibaba, Russian Billionaire Mordashov Exits Gold Race With A Handy Profit, Hong Kong Billionaire Li Ka-Shing’s Business Falsely Linked To U.S. Thucydides’ concerns were recently echoed by Graham Allison in his book, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? Are China and the US going to be able to escape Thucydides’ Trap? Macau And China Escape The Thucydides Trap? The likely result of this competition was identified by the great historian Thucydides, who wrote: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.” The U.S.-China 'Thucydides Trap': A View from Beijing by Mo Shengkai Chen Yue “It was the rise of Athens, and the fear that this inspired in Sparta, that made war inevitable.” —Thucydides The USA and China are now entangled in the Thucydides Trap; this is the entire story. The U.S. has failed to sidestep the risk of confrontation with China that Graham Allison warned of with his “Thucydides trap” metaphor. U.S. President Donald Trump (left) and Chinese President Xi Jinping (right) meet in Hamburg, Germany in July 2017. China faces a non-military threat from the United States, which relies on exports to China for about half of 1 percent of its GDP. Niger Suriname I am a finance professor who teaches at New York University Shanghai and Stern School and is a recognized expert in cross-border finance, investing and valuation, I am a finance professor who teaches at New York University Shanghai and Stern School and is a recognized expert in cross-border finance, investing and valuation, alternative investments (PE/VC) and real assets including aviation finance, and leasing. The South China Sea is therefore a frontier of particular interest for Beijing. Bolivia If the U.S. simply bought fewer Chinese products, Washington would damage China without firing a shot. U.S. President Donald Trump (left) and Chinese President Xi Jinping (right) meet in Hamburg, Germany in July 2017. Mongolia Asia. Burkina Faso Panama As the economic pie shrinks and inequality widens, governments may reach for the opiate of nationalism to give the masses. Switzerland You can draw upon the PPT slides as well, but do not simply copy them. Papua New Guinea The controversial “Thucydides trap” argument has sparked a heated debate since 2013, when President Xi Jinping of China told a cluster of western guests: “We must all work together to avoid Thucydides’ trap.” Later, this concept was elucidated by Professor Graham Allison in his articles, talks and famous book Destined for War: Can America and […] Thucydides trap is really a clear and analogous concept to explain why the USA has been trying to obstruct the emergence of China as a rising power in the international system. Jamaica This was widely said in the early stages of World War II and repeated throughout the Cold War. Uzbekistan The economic interconnectedness of the world has given leaders new ways to apply political pressure, pursue strategic competition, and strive for fair bilateral relations. Thailand San Marino But a hot war is not automatic. Other best-selling books include Flashpoints: The Emerging Crisis in Europe, The Next Decade, America’s Secret War, The Future of War and The Intelligence Edge. The military problem is simple. Bhutan Guinea Chad Dominican Republic Guatemala Tajikistan Bosnia and Herzegovina For all its hardware and technology, it has not fought a naval battle since 1895 (which it lost). Are China and the US going to be able to escape Thucydides’ Trap? He analysed the reasons around it and came to the conclusion that if a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power it could lead to war. Basically, the Thucydides Trap says that as a rising power challenges the dominance of an established power, that dominant power is likely to respond with violence. French Guiana Bermuda Malta Gupta cites an article in the South China Morning Post by journalist Alex Lo, who said that the two countries were actually caught in a ‘Thucydides trap’. Afghanistan Sweden It’s true that China is a rising power, but as I said, it’s rising from the Maoist era. About the Peloponnesian War that devastated ancient Greece, the historian Thucydides explained: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear … Aruba This misuse of the concept is quite sad, because Thucydides actually does have a very useful story to tell policy-makers in the United States. South Korea Kyrgyzstan Solomon Islands The error is the idea that China is a rising power. Maybe that’s true. Kuwait The Thucydides Trap leads us to believe a U.S.-China war is inevitable. United States of America Jersey (Channel Islands) Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.